EDITOR'S PAGE

The red brick wall syndrome

Our high-priced technological inoculations seemed to have paid off in dispatching the Y2K bug. If recent record-breaking sales and book-to-bill figures are any indication, those preemptive efforts didn't hurt the ongoing recovery in the semiconductor industry either, as some of the billions of dollars spent on upgrading systems and software poured into chip company coffers as well as those of their suppliers. Now that the euphoria of the global celebrations has begun to wear off and the holiday shutdowns recede into memory, the pressing business of pushing chipmaking manufacturing technology into the new century resumes its relentless pace. As a reminder of how much work remains to be done, the recently released International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) depicts a sometimes daunting future, in terms of both industry economics and technical advances.

The ITRS's section on defect reduction has some sobering passages. There's a lot of what I call "the red brick wall syndrome." Those familiar with the roadmap's color-keyed tables and charts know that white represents "solutions exist," yellow depicts "solutions being pursued," and red means "no known solutions." In three of the four focus topics, the tables present a grim defect scenario for the 2003­2005 time frame, unless technical breakthroughs escalate over the next couple of years. The yield model and defect budget technology requirements table for microprocessors shows random process-induced defect budgets for 31 generic tool types scaled to 75-nm critical defect size or better. In the 2003 column, which figures to be somewhere between the 100- and 70-nm process nodes, 18 of the 31 tools see red, with the remaining 13 in the yellow zone. In 2004, when the 70-nm node debuts, there is a solid crimson barrier, with all 31 tool types stuck on "no known solution." The defect detection requirements table fares a bit better in 2004, with 9 of 14 slots in the yellow and the other 5 in the red, but the 2005 column goes red in 10 categories. The dark flow continues on the defect sources and mechanisms table, which reveals 5 of 9 areas in the red in 2004 and all but 1 bleeding out in 2005. The good news in the section can be found in the defect prevention and elimination technology requirements, all of which have existing or pursued solutions well into the next decade.

We've taken a two-pronged approach to discussing the ITRS in this month's issue. Our lead Industry News story starting on page 14 deals with the potential economic impact of the roadmap's R&D requirements on the semiconductor foodchain, especially the equipment, material, and component supplier companies. Serious doubts linger that the returns on R&D investment are enough to keep companies comfortably in the black. "I'm not convinced," muses former SEMI/Sematech head Paul Peercy in the story, "that we have proved that the industry generates enough revenue to sustain this technology acceleration indefinitely."

The other part of our roadmap coverage focuses on the differences between the respective defect reduction technology sections of the 1997 and 1999 documents. Dave Jensen and his fellow working group travelers sum up the state of defect affairs in the ITRS Update article beginning on page 39. A better understanding of the systematic component of yield loss, high-speed inspection tools capable of examining high-aspect ratio features, defect-free process equipment, and advanced data mining and management tools and techniques are all on their hit list of current and future challenges. I strongly encourage you to check out the entire ITRS document, which can be accessed at http://www.itrs.net/1999_SIA_Roadmap/Home.htm.

The roadmap also helps guide my editorial planning for the year, so expect to see many references in MICRO throughout 2000 to the ITRS as well as articles inspired by its technological signposts.

Tom Cheyney
Editor

tom.cheyney@cancom.com
http://www.micromagazine.com

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