Tool market heat wave

ILLUSTRATION BY KELLY JOHNSON; DATA COURTESY OF GARTNER DATAQUEST; BACKGROUND IMAGE COURTESY OF IBM MICROELECTRONICS

A broad recovery in the wafer fab equipment sector will take place in 2004, according to recent forecasts by Gartner Dataquest. The total market should increase 34%, with several tool segments growing at a faster clip than the overall average. The hottest equipment group will be 193-nm scanners, forecast to grow at a 65% year-to-year rate. In addition to the tool sets shown above, the PVD, nontube CVD, and track areas will increase at rates of 39%, 37%, and 36%, respectively. Although some tool sectors are forecast to perform under the overall fab equipment market average, they will show positive growth. Close to making the cut are factory automation (34%, including OEM sales) and CMP (32%), with dry etch (32%), RTP (31%), and oxidation/diffusion (26%) among the groups not shown above. Ten tool sets will join the billion-dollar revenue club in 2004, with the overall stepper market leading the way at about $4.2 billion, followed by the process control/metrology space ($3.2 billion, including OEM sales), and nontube CVD ($2.6 billion).